Steve Rubel has gazed into his crystal ball and predicted the future of television. He says that, based on current patterns and trends, we're moving toward a time when the best television has to offer will be available ad-free for a cost, much like the current iTunes sales model. Even if that programming comes from one of the big networks, you'll be paying for it on an a-la-carte basis or as part of a package. And that content will be delivered via internet connections. What then happens to those advertising dollars if the programs are ad-free for a charge? Good question. People aren't likely to pay for an episode of a show AND accept advertising in it, at least not now. Steve doesn't answer that question.

I think that his assumptions and predictions are faulty for one reason: They depend on the survival of the network distribution model. I think that within the next two years we'll see a production company go straight to the consumer in much the way that every other industry is doing now with their blogs and podcasts. So much of the corporate world has seen that you don't need to go through established channels to reach people and it's only a matter of time until TV producers figure this out as well. After all, why should Sony Television, for example, worry about whether a show will get picked up on a network when they could provide episodes via the internet or VOD themselves. They could even accept advertising on their own and give people the option of free and ad-supported or for a charge and ad-free.

Cutting out the networks makes sense when you think about it in the same way you think about blogs. Provide a product that may not have wide appeal but is tremendously popular with a niche audience. Then sell advertising that fits with what you know about that audience. A premium can be charged for that advertising because of the highly targeted and engaged nature of that audience. We're already seeing the dissolution of the network brand cache. TiVo and iTunes don't care where the product comes from. The networks still get their branding but that's not important to the end user. It doesn't matter where 24 is broadcast, just that it's available to watch when and where it's convenient for the watcher.

The point is that distribution is the key. Getting it to the audience is the ultimate goal and that audience is becoming less and less concerned with where it's coming from. Advertisers and producers alike should be thinking along those lines and making plans accordingly.